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Crude Oil Rises to 4-Month High
Crude oil rose past $103 per barrel on Monday, the highest in four months, on mounting curbs to supply from the Middle East due to the war in Iran. Saudi Arabia was forced to close its East-West pipeline following attacks from Iraqi territory. The strikes suspended activity in infrastructure that was allocating 7 million barrels per day of Saudi oil to the Red Sea, acting as an alternative to halted shipments through the Persian Gulf due to the Iranian blockade on GCC oil exports. Meanwhile, scheduled talks between the GCC and Iran to, aimed at conjuring joint efforts to restart oil supply from the region, was postponed by Tehran. The events deepened the prolonged halt of tanker flows from the region that have driven major oil producers to halt their operations, with Saudi output recently dropping to its lowest since 1990. Dwindling stockpiles of oil in China drove the major importer to raise orders in August, while the US SPR stands at a near record low.
United States
US Futures Pull Back
Futures tracking US equity indices were lower on Monday amid fresh concerns that AI-safety risks could slow development and spending, while global yields remained high. The S&P 500 fell 0.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.5%, while the Dow inched down 0.2%. Anthropic CEO Amodei called for a slower pace of new AI development to account for risks around the capabilities of improving models, with loose endorsements from OpenAI and xAI CEO's Altman and Musk. The spotlight on risks shed speculative demand for chip manufacturers and AI infrastructure companies with Micron, AMD, Sandisk, Lam Research, Marvell, and GE Vernona sliding between 5% and 8%, while Nvidia slipped 2.5%. Meanwhile, long-maturity yields held their recent surges ahead of the Fed's decision this week as the rejection of talks between GCC states prolonged halts to tanker flows from the region, raising energy prices.
Pakistan
Pakistan Central Bank Leaves Key Rate Unchanged
The State Bank of Pakistan left its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 11.5% at its September 14th, 2026 meeting, keeping borrowing costs steady for a third consecutive meeting and in line with market expectations. Credit-rating upgrades and a record USD 3 billion bond sale underscored improvements in investor confidence. Still, energy-dependent Pakistan remains vulnerable to energy shocks following a surge in global oil prices due to the conflict in the Middle East, threatening to increase import costs and strain external finances. Headline inflation jumped to 11.15% in August, more than tripling from 3.1% a year earlier and moving further above the SBP’s target range of 5-7%.
India
India Inflation Rate Rises as Expected
The headline inflation rate in India rose to 4.82% in August of 2026 from 4.45% in the previous month, the highest since December of 2024, and aligned with market expectations of 4.8%. The increase reflected fresh inflationary pressures from the surge in energy prices since the outbreak of war in the Middle East, magnified by the consequent pressure on the rupee. Still, the rate remained comfortably within the RBI's tolerance range of 2 percentage points away from 4%. Inflation was elevated for food and beverages (5.95%) and transportation (4.6%), both impacted by the war, while the latter was also influenced by adverse weather conditions for key crops during an aggressive El Nino. Meanwhile, prices soared for restaurants and accommodation services (8.38%) and personal care, social protection, and miscellaneous goods and services (15.17%).
Israel
Israel Trade Deficit Hits Record High in August
Israel’s trade deficit widened sharply to USD 5.8 billion in August 2026 from USD 3.4 billion in the same month a year earlier. This marked the largest deficit on record, as import growth far outpaced exports. Imports surged 40.9% year-on-year to USD 11.1 billion, driven by higher purchases of fuels (+172.6%), investment goods (+68.1%), consumer goods (+29.4%), and raw materials (+24.1%). Meanwhile, exports rose 19.3% to USD 5.3 billion, driven largely by increased shipments of manufactured, mining, and quarrying products excluding diamonds (+23.9%), which more than offset declines in wholesale diamond shipments (-77.7%) and agriculture, forestry, and fishing (-9.5%). In the January–August period, the trade deficit expanded by 32.6% to USD 34.1 billion from USD 25.7 billion in the same period last year.
China
China Credit Issuance Continues to Weaken
New yuan loans extended by Chinese banks rose by a net CNY 60 billion in August of 2026, well bellow the CNY 590 billion from the corresponding period of the previous year, and well under median market expectations of a CNY 400 billion net gain. The result followed the CNY 340 billion net contraction in July, which was the sharpest decline on record, to hold the softening trend in banking credit activity as a slowing economy and poor consumer sentiment, particularly for housing, limited demand for loans. The trend also reflects the downturn for traditional sectors of the economy into tech, which commonly raises cash in the bond market instead of bank loans. Meanwhile, aggregate financing, a broader measure of credit in the Chinese financial system, was at CNY 1.66 trillion, reflecting a larger part of credit was raised through the issuance of government bonds. Outstanding loan growth was at 4.9% annually.
Italy
Enel Stock Price Hits 29-week Low
Enel shares decreased to 8.84 EUR, the lowest since February 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Enel lost 6.56%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 11.69%.
United Kingdom
British Pound Hits 5-week Low
GBPUSD decreased to 1.35, the lowest since August 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, British Pound US Dollar lost 0.5%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 0.92%.
United Kingdom
UK Gilt Yields Near 19-Year High Ahead of BoE Meeting
The UK 10-year gilt yield climbed toward 5.4%, hovering near its highest level since August 2007, as surging oil prices and Britain’s vulnerability to energy shocks drove investors to increase bets on further Bank of England rate hikes ahead of Thursday’s policy meeting. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has pushed back against expectations of another imminent hike, but rising energy costs have clouded the inflation outlook, with oil trading well above $100 a barrel amid renewed Middle East hostilities. Goldman Sachs expects the BoE to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on Thursday, before delivering a 25-bp hike in November as inflation remains elevated and growth holds up. Markets are meanwhile pricing in four BoE hikes by mid-2027. In the US, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 25 bps on Wednesday, with inflation concerns likely to keep the focus on the outlook for further policy tightening.
FX Updates: Polish Zloty Drops by 0.86%
Top currency losers are Polish Zloty (-0.86%), New Zealand Dollar (-0.72%), Swedish Krona (-0.72%), Japanese Yen (-0.62%), Euro (-0.52%) and British Pound (-0.31%). Gains are led by Dollar Index (0.46%).
Hong Kong
Hong Kong Manufacturing Growth Slows Again
Manufacturing production in Hong Kong increased 2.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, down from 3.1% in the previous quarter and slowing for a second consecutive quarter to its weakest pace of growth since the second quarter of 2025. Activity in the manufacturing of metal, computer, electronic and optical products, machinery and equipment slowed for a second consecutive quarter, rising 3.8% after a 6.5% increase, while output of food, beverages and tobacco plunged 4%, reversing a 2.2% rise in the prior quarter. Meanwhile, production of textiles and wearing apparel remained in contraction, although the decline eased to 1.5% from 4.6%. In contrast, manufacturing of paper products, printing and reproduction of recorded media rebounded, rising 2.8% after a 2.6% contraction. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, manufacturing production edged up 0.2%, following a 2.6% drop in the prior quarter.
United Kingdom
Pound Falls Ahead of Fed, BoE Decisions
The British pound weakened below $1.35, touching its lowest level since mid-August, as the dollar remained supported ahead of a widely expected Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday, while the Bank of England is expected to hold rates on Thursday. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has pushed back against expectations of another imminent rate hike, but surging energy prices have clouded the inflation outlook, with oil climbing well above $100 a barrel amid renewed Middle East hostilities. Earlier this month, data showed the UK economy expanded at its fastest pace in 18 months in July, supported by AI-related activity and continued momentum from a strong first half. Goldman Sachs expects the BoE to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday, before delivering a 25-bp hike in November as inflation persists and growth holds up. Markets, meanwhile, are pricing in four BoE rate hikes by mid-2027.
Crypto Updates: XRP Appreciates by 3.46%
Top crypto gainers are XRP (3.46%), Ether (1.87%) and Bitcoin (1.19%).
Czech Republic
Czechia Current Account Deficit Widens in July
The Czech Republic’s current account deficit widened to CZK 34.2 billion in July 2026, from CZK 27.0 billion in July 2025. The deterioration was mainly driven by a wider secondary income deficit, which increased to CZK 8.4 billion from CZK 6.4 billion, while the goods and services surplus narrowed to CZK 15.8 billion from CZK 22.0 billion. Within this, the goods surplus fell to CZK 10.7 billion from CZK 11.9 billion, while the services surplus halved to CZK 5.1 billion from CZK 10.1 billion. Meanwhile, the primary income deficit narrowed to CZK 41.6 billion from CZK 42.6 billion.
Corn Futures Remain Firm
Corn futures traded around $5.3 per bushel, remaining near their highest level since mid-2023 as supply risks in the Black Sea region continued to support prices, while traders weighed the USDA’s latest supply-and-demand report. The September USDA report cut the US 2026/27 corn yield forecast to 178.5 bushels per acre from 180.7, lowered production to 15.8 billion bushels from 16.013 billion, and reduced ending stocks to 1.567 billion bushels from 1.653 billion. The lower forecasts reflected expectations for a smaller US harvest following hot summer weather and concerns over crop conditions. Meanwhile, continued Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports and logistics are also threatening grain flows, forcing Ukraine to reroute more exports through the Danube. This is helping Argentina capture additional demand, with its corn exports expected to reach a record 10 million metric tons in August–September, partly filling the gap left by disrupted Ukrainian supplies.
Agricultural Commodities Updates: Cotton Drops by 1.34%
Top commodity losers are Cotton (-1.34%) and Rapeseed (-0.80%). Gains are led by Palm Oil (1.14%), Canola (0.95%) and Oat (0.52%).
Germany
Bund Yields Hit 17-Year High on Inflation Fears
Germany’s 10-year Bund yield rose above 3.5%, reaching its highest level since June 2009, after climbing more than 16 bps last week, the biggest weekly increase since early March, shortly after the Iran war began. Global bond markets remain under pressure from elevated energy prices and growing concerns over inflation and higher interest rates, with yields repeatedly reaching fresh multi-year highs. Oil prices climbed well above $100 a barrel as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz intensified following new Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and Iranian attacks on Gulf shipping. The ECB raised rates last week and signaled that further tightening could follow, prompting markets to price in at least one more rate hike this year. Attention now turns to a busy week for central banks, with the Fed decision on Wednesday, followed by the BoE on Thursday and a widely expected BoJ hike on Friday. The BoE is expected to hold rates, although the vote is likely to be close.
Metals Commodities Updates: Lithium Carbonate Falls by 2.53%
Top commodity losers are Lithium Carbonate (-2.53%), Silver (-1.55%), Copper (-1.41%) and Gold (-0.83%).
Energy Commodities Updates: Natural Gas EU Surges by 5.95%
Top commodity gainers are Natural Gas EU (5.95%), Natural Gas UK (5.75%), Brent Oil (2.84%) and Crude Oil (2.59%).
Germany
DAX Falls as Oil and AI Concerns Weigh
Frankfurt’s DAX 40 fell more than 0.5% to around 25,420 points on Monday, pressured by a sharp rise in oil prices, renewed concerns over the rapid development of artificial intelligence, and a cautious tone ahead of a busy week for central banks. Oil prices climbed as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz intensified following new Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and Iranian attacks on Gulf shipping, adding to supply concerns after the closure of a key Saudi pipeline. Meanwhile, renewed fears over AI risks weighed on sentiment, with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warning of potentially large-scale AI-driven cyberattacks and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman calling for a more cautious pace of development. Markets are also bracing for a busy week of central-bank decisions, with the Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates on Wednesday. Among individual movers, Adidas fell 0.6% after investment bank Baird downgraded the stock to “Neutral” and cut its price target from €180 to €165.
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